Sea condition would be rough and wind speed is likely to gradually increase from November 22 onwards, Met department bulletin said
Various weather models and forecasters have predicted that from Tuesday, the northern parts of Tamil Nadu, including Chennai, Kancheepuram, Tiruvallur and up to Cuddalore and beyond, are likely to receive heavy rain, with the landfall (of a storm) possibly occurring between Karaikal and Mamallapuram in the latter part of Wednesday. There will be rainfall at a few places on Monday.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), isolated, extremely heavy rainfall is likely over most places in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during Tuesday and Wednesday.
Also read: Cyclonic circulation triggers rain in Chennai
This is due to the well-marked low pressure area over the southwest Bay of Bengal that is very likely to concentrate into a depression during the next 24 hours and intensify further into a cyclonic storm during the subsequent 24 hours.
The Regional Meteorological Office in Chennai has forecast that the cyclone is very likely to move northwestwards and cross the coast between Karaikal and Mamallapuram around the noon or afternoon of Wednesday. It predicted squally weather along the coast with wind speeds reaching 45-55 kmph, gusting to 65 kmph, from Monday.
The wind speed is expected to touch 80-90 kmph, gusting to 100 kmph, over the southwest Bay of Bengal and along and off the Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast and the Gulf of Mannar on Wednesday.
Senior meteorologist Y.E.A. Raj said in the past 50 years, 11 systems had developed where the present one was forming and nine of them crossed the State’s coast. But not all of them became cyclones; some remained deep depressions. None of them developed beyond severe cyclones.
Also read: Heavy rain forecast till November 18
“This system is expected to recurve towards the north. With the rainfall this monsoon being deficient by 23%, this system is likely to bring a decent amount of rainfall and bridge the deficit,” he said.
Weather blogger Pradeep John said that Monday would throw more light on the movement of the cyclone and where it would cross the coast. “The city will get rains, we know, but as to how much we will get depends on how close it will cross,” he said.
“We can expect rains over the State to begin from Tuesday. The American model says it would be stronger than Thane [cyclone] and shows rainfall of around 200-300 mm a day. We can definitely expect extreme rainfall in some places. It looks like a rain-filled system. Since this is the northeast monsoon, the northern side of the cyclone will bring in more rain bands,” the official said.
Meanwhile, quelling the doubts of Chennai residents about reservoirs being opened, official sources in the Public Works Department said they were keeping a close watch on various reservoirs around Chennai and tanks upstream. “Adequate precautionary measures have been taken. We are confident of managing any emergency,” an official said. A former official said reservoirs would not be an issue. “Only if rainfall exceeds 50 cm, might there be a problem,” he said.
With the meteorological department predicting very rough seas in these regions, fishermen have been advised not to venture into the sea until after Thursday.
Sources in the Fisheries Department said that based on the formal advisories issued by the districts, messages have been passed on to the owners of all boats. “Traditional boats and mechanised craft have been advised to stay on shore. Meetings have been held with various associations,” said an official.
“All the trawler boats that put out to sea from the Chennai Harbour have returned and a few multi-day fishing boats, especially gillnet boats, that went out of Chennai Harbour are in transit and expected to reach Chennai or harbours close to them soon. They are in the northern waters, and their movement is being monitored,” the official said.