Coronavirus cases cross 25K, TN batting on a sticky wicket – Times of India

CHENNAI: Tamil Nadu’s Covid-19 count stood at 25,872 on Wednesday, 19 days after registering 10,000 cases. In comparison, Maharashtra, the worst-hit state in the country, touched the mark of 25,000 cases in 13 days between April 30 and May 13 with 975 deaths.
Tamil Nadu has the second highest number of Covid-19 cases in the country after Maharashtra, which has so far reported 74,860 cases. However, Chennai’s share of the state’s cases was higher compared to Mumbai, when the two states touched the mark, experts pointed out. The first case in Tamil Nadu was registered on March 7, when a passenger from Muscat tested positive for the viral infection. Maharashtra reported its first case two days later.
By April 30, Maharashtra breached the 10,000 mark and registered 10,498 cases, with Mumbai accounting for 6,800 cases. Tamil Nadu reached 10,108 cases on May 15, when there were 5,946 cases in Chennai. While it took five days for Maharashtra to reach 15,525 cases on May 5, Tamil Nadu took eight days. Tamil Nadu registered 15,512 cases on May 23 with 9,989 cases in Chennai. On May 13, Maharashtra had 25,922 cases, with Mumbai having 60% of the share (15,747 cases). On June 3, Chennai accounted for 68% of Tamil Nadu’s share.
The poor living conditions in the Tamil Nadu capital, a densely populated city, is making containment tough, chief minister Edappadi K Palaniswami has said. In a fortnight, Tamil Nadu is expected to double its case tally to 50,000, experts at the National Institute of Epidemiology, an ICMR (Indian Council of Medical research) institute based in Chennai, said. They point out that the doubling time – the time it takes for the number of cases to double – is 14 days. But its capital city, which has recorded 17,598 cases so far, will double it in 13 days.
The forecast from the Tamil Nadu Dr MGR Medical University, the state medical university, has said that the state will have 1.3 lakh cases by the end of June, while Chennai will have at least 71,000 cases. Scientists in the university say the death toll in the city by then will be 748. “That’s when we will still be climbing the peak,” a scientist said. The state, according to the university prediction, will reach its peak by the middle of October, while the city will have scaled it a fortnight earlier. “Without the lockdown, the epidemic would peak in mid-July when there would be 3.5 crore cases at the same time, putting public health facilities under great stress,” they added.
Senior infectious diseases experts and public health specialists agree. While epidemiologist Dr Jayapraskash Muliyal says an increase is inevitable when lockdown rules are being relaxed, infectious diseases expert Dr Subramaniam Swaminathan of Global Hospitals said that there was no stark difference in the trajectory or healthcare system between Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. “There will be increase in cases and deaths in Tamil Nadu too. We are already seeing the evidence in ICUs. More people are now reporting with respiratory infections than before,” he said.
State health officials say they are now guarded. “We have managed to delay the peak, but we are getting our infrastructure and human resources ready,” said health secretary Beela Rajesh. “We want to focus on keeping the vulnerable population protected,” she said.