Chennai’s 18% Covid-19 positivity rate worries experts, doctors – Times of India

CHENNAI: The city’s Covid-19 positivity rate of 18% is almost double the state’s 9.7% and the number of its total active cases has crossed 24,000 recorded on July 5, 2020. As on April 18, the city had 25,011 active cases.
City-based Covid data analyst Vijayanand said the doubling period for Chennai stood at eight days. If the present trend continues, there will be 50,000 cases in a week. “For entire TN, the doubling time is nine days and the cases, at this rate, will touch one lakh in the next six days.”

At present, Greater Chennai Corporation has more than 1,500 people in Covid care centres and even if 80% are in home isolation, the numbers in the coming weeks will be ery high and hospitals will be overwhelmed, said experts.
Infectious diseases expert Dr S Subramaniam said the problem is that the state has not upgraded the process, and the protocol used in March 2020 is being followed now. “We need to make quick decisions. Earlier only a few, mostly elderly, were symptomatic. Now, after one person in a family tests positive, almost all his/her contacts are testing positive, most of them youngsters and symptomatic. We cannot give them home isolation as it is risky,” he said.
With the current surge in cases, the trend of oxygen bed occupancy must be monitored, said Dr P Ganesh Kumar, assistant director at National Institute of Epidemiology. Data on proportion of active cases under oxygen support will help project the number of oxygen beds which would be filled with current increase in cases.
Corporation officials said that in the current surge more youngsters are getting affected. “For every positive case, a minimum of six contacts are being traced. The problem is all of them are testing positive. Last year, only symptomatic were tested and most of them tested negative. The entire trend has changed,” said an official.
The civic body has 12,600 beds in Covid care centres and is prepared to scale up the number to 20,000. “But we are aware this won’t be enough,” he said.
Dr Subramanian said bed shortage was far worse than last year because of the number of youngsters requiring hospitalization. “I have two pregnant mothers in ICU now. We have no new protocols on treatment as we are still following the older one.”